Year 2017, Volume 5, Issue 1, Pages 103 - 114 2017-06-30

Karar Ağaçları ve Genetik Algoritmalar ile İkinci El Otomobil Satış Fiyat Tahmini
Predicting Second-Hand Car Sales Price Using Decision Trees and Genetic Algorithms

Mehmet Özçalıcı [1]

379 985

İkinci el araçların satış fiyatlarının önceden tahmin edilmesi, ikinci el piyasada alım satımla ilgilenen kişi ve kurumlar için önem arz etmektedir. Ancak araçların fiyatlarının birçok faktörden etkilenmesi, satış fiyatının tahmin edilmesini zorlaştırmaktadır. Özellikle araçlara ilişkin hesaplanabilen birçok değişken arasında hangilerinin en iyi tahmin performansını sergileyeceğini belirlemeye yönelik hazır bir yöntem mevcut değildir. Bu çalışmanın amacı karar ağaçları ile ikinci el otomobil satış fiyatını tahmin etmektir. Karar ağaçları için değişken seçimi genetik algoritma ile gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bu amaçla Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren e-ticaret sitelerinden birinde yer alan 252645 adet otomobile ait satış ilanı taranmıştır. Her bir otomobile ilişkin 139 adet değişken mevcuttur. Genetik Algoritmalar yardımıyla sırasıyla 5, 10, 15 ve 20 adet değişkenin seçildiği modeller incelenmiştir. %65.67 ye varan oranda doğru tahmin gerçekleştirilebilmiştir. Önerilen yöntemi, ikinci el piyasada işlem yapan taraflar karar destek sistemi olarak kullanabilirler.
It is important to predict the sales price of second-hand car for both persons and institutions who are operating in second-hand market. The sales price of cars are affected by many factors which makes predicting difficult. Especially there is no readily available method to determine which factors are affecting the sales price most. The purpose of this study is to predict the sales price of second-hand cars with decision trees. Genetic Algortihm is used to select the most relevant features. For this purpose, 252645 advertisements are scanned fort his study. For each advertisement there are 139 features available. Different models are examined using genetic algorithms with selecting 5, 10, 15 and 20 features. The best predicting performance in the out-of-sample experiment is %65,67. Proposed model can be used as a decision support system for those operating in second-hand car market
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Subjects Social
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Author: Mehmet Özçalıcı

Bibtex @research article { alphanumeric323836, journal = {Alphanumeric Journal}, issn = {}, eissn = {2148-2225}, address = {Bahadır Fatih YILDIRIM}, year = {2017}, volume = {5}, pages = {103 - 114}, doi = {10.17093/alphanumeric.323836}, title = {Predicting Second-Hand Car Sales Price Using Decision Trees and Genetic Algorithms}, key = {cite}, author = {Özçalıcı, Mehmet} }
APA Özçalıcı, M . (2017). Predicting Second-Hand Car Sales Price Using Decision Trees and Genetic Algorithms. Alphanumeric Journal, 5 (1), 103-114. DOI: 10.17093/alphanumeric.323836
MLA Özçalıcı, M . "Predicting Second-Hand Car Sales Price Using Decision Trees and Genetic Algorithms". Alphanumeric Journal 5 (2017): 103-114 <http://dergipark.gov.tr/alphanumeric/issue/26687/323836>
Chicago Özçalıcı, M . "Predicting Second-Hand Car Sales Price Using Decision Trees and Genetic Algorithms". Alphanumeric Journal 5 (2017): 103-114
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Predicting Second-Hand Car Sales Price Using Decision Trees and Genetic Algorithms AU - Mehmet Özçalıcı Y1 - 2017 PY - 2017 N1 - doi: 10.17093/alphanumeric.323836 DO - 10.17093/alphanumeric.323836 T2 - Alphanumeric Journal JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 103 EP - 114 VL - 5 IS - 1 SN - -2148-2225 M3 - doi: 10.17093/alphanumeric.323836 UR - https://doi.org/10.17093/alphanumeric.323836 Y2 - 2017 ER -
EndNote %0 Alphanumeric Journal Predicting Second-Hand Car Sales Price Using Decision Trees and Genetic Algorithms %A Mehmet Özçalıcı %T Predicting Second-Hand Car Sales Price Using Decision Trees and Genetic Algorithms %D 2017 %J Alphanumeric Journal %P -2148-2225 %V 5 %N 1 %R doi: 10.17093/alphanumeric.323836 %U 10.17093/alphanumeric.323836
ISNAD Özçalıcı, Mehmet . "Predicting Second-Hand Car Sales Price Using Decision Trees and Genetic Algorithms". Alphanumeric Journal 5 / 1 (June 2017): 103-114. https://doi.org/10.17093/alphanumeric.323836