Yıl 2017, Cilt 5, Sayı 2, Sayfalar 329 - 338 2017-12-11

Application of Seasonal and Multivariable Grey Prediction Models for Short-Term Load Forecasting
Kısa Dönem Yük Tahmini için Mevsimsel ve Çok Değişkenli Gri Tahmin Modellerinin Uygulanması

Tuncay Özcan [1]

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Short-term electricity load forecasting is one of the most important operations in electricity markets. The success in the operations of electricity market participants partially depends on the accuracy of load forecasts. In this paper, three grey prediction models, which are seasonal grey model (SGM), multivariable grey model (GM (1,N)) and genetic algorithm based multivariable grey model (GAGM (1,N)), are proposed for short-term load forecasting problem in day-ahead market. The effectiveness of these models is illustrated with two real-world data sets. Numerical results show that the genetic algorithm based multivariable grey model (GAGM (1,N)) is the most efficient grey forecasting model through its better forecast accuracy.
Kısa dönem elektrik yükü tahmini, elektrik piyasasında en önemli operasyonlardan biridir. Elektrik piyasasındaki işletmelerin operasyonlarındaki başarı, yük tahminlerinin doğruluğuna bağlıdır. Bu çalışmada, gün öncesi piyasasında kısa döneli yük tahmini problemi için mevsimsel gri model (SGM), çok değişkenli gri model (GM (1,N)) ve genetik algoritma esaslı gri model olmak üzere üç gri tahmin modeli önerilmiştir. Bu modellerin etkinliği, iki gerçek hayat veri kümesi ile gösterilmiştir. Sayısal sonuçlar, genetik algoritma esaslı gri modeli daha iyi tahmin doğruluğu sağlayarak en etkin gri tahmin modeli olduğunu göstermektedir.
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Konular Sosyal ve Beşeri Bilimler
Dergi Bölümü Makaleler
Yazarlar

Orcid: 0000-0002-9520-2494
Yazar: Tuncay Özcan (Sorumlu Yazar)
E-posta: tuncay.ozcan@istanbul.edu.tr
Kurum: Istanbul University
Ülke: Turkey


Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { alphanumeric359942, journal = {Alphanumeric Journal}, issn = {}, address = {Bahadır Fatih Yıldırım}, year = {2017}, volume = {5}, pages = {329 - 338}, doi = {10.17093/alphanumeric.359942}, title = {Application of Seasonal and Multivariable Grey Prediction Models for Short-Term Load Forecasting}, key = {cite}, author = {Özcan, Tuncay} }
APA Özcan, T . (2017). Application of Seasonal and Multivariable Grey Prediction Models for Short-Term Load Forecasting. Alphanumeric Journal, 5 (2), 329-338. DOI: 10.17093/alphanumeric.359942
MLA Özcan, T . "Application of Seasonal and Multivariable Grey Prediction Models for Short-Term Load Forecasting". Alphanumeric Journal 5 (2017): 329-338 <http://dergipark.gov.tr/alphanumeric/issue/31474/359942>
Chicago Özcan, T . "Application of Seasonal and Multivariable Grey Prediction Models for Short-Term Load Forecasting". Alphanumeric Journal 5 (2017): 329-338
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Application of Seasonal and Multivariable Grey Prediction Models for Short-Term Load Forecasting AU - Tuncay Özcan Y1 - 2017 PY - 2017 N1 - doi: 10.17093/alphanumeric.359942 DO - 10.17093/alphanumeric.359942 T2 - Alphanumeric Journal JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 329 EP - 338 VL - 5 IS - 2 SN - -2148-2225 M3 - doi: 10.17093/alphanumeric.359942 UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.17093/alphanumeric.359942 Y2 - 2017 ER -
EndNote %0 Alphanumeric Journal Application of Seasonal and Multivariable Grey Prediction Models for Short-Term Load Forecasting %A Tuncay Özcan %T Application of Seasonal and Multivariable Grey Prediction Models for Short-Term Load Forecasting %D 2017 %J Alphanumeric Journal %P -2148-2225 %V 5 %N 2 %R doi: 10.17093/alphanumeric.359942 %U 10.17093/alphanumeric.359942