Among many indicators of climate change, the temperature is a key indicator to take remedial action for world global warming. This finding provides application of spacetime models for temperature data, which is selected in three meteorology stations (Mekelle, Adigrat and Adwa) of Northern Ethiopia. The objectives of this research are to see the spacetime variations of temperature and to find better forecasting model. The steps for building this model starting from order selection of space and autoregressive order, parameters estimation, a diagnostic check of errors and finally forecasting for the long term. The preliminary model is identified by VAR (vector autoregressive) model and tentatively selects the order by using MIC (minimum information criteria) and uses the autoregressive order for the model and fixes the spatial effect, model parameters are estimated using the least square method. Weighted matrix computed by using queen contiguity criteria. It is found that the model STAR(1,1) and GSTAR(1,1) are two options, finally the bestfitted model is GSTAR(1,1) which has high forecasting performance and smallest RMSEF. The outcome of the forecast indicated that in northern Ethiopia, the weather conditions especially temperature of future is increasing trend in dry seasons in all 3 stations in similar fashion but more consistent and has less variation across the region, and less consistent and high variation within the region and the researcher found that spatial effect has high impact on prediction of models.
Birincil Dil  en 

Konular  Matematik 
Dergi Bölümü  Articles 
Yazarlar 

Bibtex  @araştırma makalesi { forecasting437599,
journal = {Turkish Journal of Forecasting},
issn = {},
eissn = {26186594},
address = {Giresun University Forecast Research Laboratory},
year = {2018},
volume = {02},
pages = {9  19},
doi = {},
title = {GSTAR Model for Forecasting SpaceTime Variation of Temperature in Northern Ethiopia},
key = {cite},
author = {Zewdie, Mulugeta Aklilu and Wubit, Gebretsadik G and Ayele, Amare W}
} 
APA  Zewdie, M , Wubit, G , Ayele, A . (2018). GSTAR Model for Forecasting SpaceTime Variation of Temperature in Northern Ethiopia. Turkish Journal of Forecasting, 02 (1), 919. Retrieved from http://dergipark.gov.tr/forecasting/issue/38990/437599 
MLA  Zewdie, M , Wubit, G , Ayele, A . "GSTAR Model for Forecasting SpaceTime Variation of Temperature in Northern Ethiopia". Turkish Journal of Forecasting 02 (2018): 919 <http://dergipark.gov.tr/forecasting/issue/38990/437599> 
Chicago  Zewdie, M , Wubit, G , Ayele, A . "GSTAR Model for Forecasting SpaceTime Variation of Temperature in Northern Ethiopia". Turkish Journal of Forecasting 02 (2018): 919 
RIS  TY  JOUR T1  GSTAR Model for Forecasting SpaceTime Variation of Temperature in Northern Ethiopia AU  Mulugeta Aklilu Zewdie , Gebretsadik G Wubit , Amare W Ayele Y1  2018 PY  2018 N1  DO  T2  Turkish Journal of Forecasting JF  Journal JO  JOR SP  9 EP  19 VL  02 IS  1 SN  26186594 M3  UR  Y2  2018 ER  
EndNote  %0 Turkish Journal of Forecasting GSTAR Model for Forecasting SpaceTime Variation of Temperature in Northern Ethiopia %A Mulugeta Aklilu Zewdie , Gebretsadik G Wubit , Amare W Ayele %T GSTAR Model for Forecasting SpaceTime Variation of Temperature in Northern Ethiopia %D 2018 %J Turkish Journal of Forecasting %P 26186594 %V 02 %N 1 %R %U 
ISNAD  Zewdie, Mulugeta Aklilu , Wubit, Gebretsadik G , Ayele, Amare W . "GSTAR Model for Forecasting SpaceTime Variation of Temperature in Northern Ethiopia". Turkish Journal of Forecasting 02 / 1 (Eylül 2018): 919. 