Yıl 2018, Cilt 02, Sayı 1, Sayfalar 9 - 19 2018-09-01

G-STAR Model for Forecasting Space-Time Variation of Temperature in Northern Ethiopia

Mulugeta Aklilu Zewdie [1] , Gebretsadik G Wubit [2] , Amare W Ayele [3]

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Among many indicators of climate change, the temperature is a key indicator to take remedial action for world global warming. This finding provides application of space-time models for temperature data, which is selected in three meteorology stations (Mekelle, Adigrat and Adwa) of Northern Ethiopia. The objectives of this research are to see the space-time variations of temperature and to find better forecasting model. The steps for building this model starting from order selection of space and autoregressive order, parameters estimation, a diagnostic check of errors and finally forecasting for the long term. The preliminary model is identified by VAR (vector autoregressive) model and tentatively selects the order by using MIC (minimum information criteria) and uses the autoregressive order for the model and fixes the spatial effect, model parameters are estimated using the least square method. Weighted matrix computed by using queen contiguity criteria. It is found that the model STAR(1,1) and GSTAR(1,1) are two options, finally the best-fitted model is GSTAR(1,1) which has high forecasting performance and smallest RMSEF. The outcome of the forecast indicated that in northern Ethiopia, the weather conditions especially temperature of future is increasing trend in dry seasons in all 3 stations in similar fashion but more consistent and has less variation across the region, and less consistent and high variation within the region and the researcher found that spatial effect has high impact on prediction of models.

Temperature, STAR/GSTAR, Forecasting
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Birincil Dil en
Konular Matematik
Dergi Bölümü Articles
Yazarlar

Yazar: Mulugeta Aklilu Zewdie (Sorumlu Yazar)
Kurum: Mekelle University
Ülke: Ethiopia


Yazar: Gebretsadik G Wubit

Yazar: Amare W Ayele

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { forecasting437599, journal = {Turkish Journal of Forecasting}, issn = {}, eissn = {2618-6594}, address = {Giresun University Forecast Research Laboratory}, year = {2018}, volume = {02}, pages = {9 - 19}, doi = {}, title = {G-STAR Model for Forecasting Space-Time Variation of Temperature in Northern Ethiopia}, key = {cite}, author = {Zewdie, Mulugeta Aklilu and Wubit, Gebretsadik G and Ayele, Amare W} }
APA Zewdie, M , Wubit, G , Ayele, A . (2018). G-STAR Model for Forecasting Space-Time Variation of Temperature in Northern Ethiopia. Turkish Journal of Forecasting, 02 (1), 9-19. Retrieved from http://dergipark.gov.tr/forecasting/issue/38990/437599
MLA Zewdie, M , Wubit, G , Ayele, A . "G-STAR Model for Forecasting Space-Time Variation of Temperature in Northern Ethiopia". Turkish Journal of Forecasting 02 (2018): 9-19 <http://dergipark.gov.tr/forecasting/issue/38990/437599>
Chicago Zewdie, M , Wubit, G , Ayele, A . "G-STAR Model for Forecasting Space-Time Variation of Temperature in Northern Ethiopia". Turkish Journal of Forecasting 02 (2018): 9-19
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - G-STAR Model for Forecasting Space-Time Variation of Temperature in Northern Ethiopia AU - Mulugeta Aklilu Zewdie , Gebretsadik G Wubit , Amare W Ayele Y1 - 2018 PY - 2018 N1 - DO - T2 - Turkish Journal of Forecasting JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 9 EP - 19 VL - 02 IS - 1 SN - -2618-6594 M3 - UR - Y2 - 2018 ER -
EndNote %0 Turkish Journal of Forecasting G-STAR Model for Forecasting Space-Time Variation of Temperature in Northern Ethiopia %A Mulugeta Aklilu Zewdie , Gebretsadik G Wubit , Amare W Ayele %T G-STAR Model for Forecasting Space-Time Variation of Temperature in Northern Ethiopia %D 2018 %J Turkish Journal of Forecasting %P -2618-6594 %V 02 %N 1 %R %U
ISNAD Zewdie, Mulugeta Aklilu , Wubit, Gebretsadik G , Ayele, Amare W . "G-STAR Model for Forecasting Space-Time Variation of Temperature in Northern Ethiopia". Turkish Journal of Forecasting 02 / 1 (Eylül 2018): 9-19.