Yıl 2018, Cilt 47, Sayı 3, Sayfalar 741 - 754 2018-06-01

Modified simple exponential smoothing

Guckan Yapar [1]

24 26

In this study, we propose a new exponential smoothing method, modified simple exponential smoothing (MSES) as an alternative to simple exponential smoothing (SES). Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, SES has some shortcomings that negatively affect the
accuracy of forecasts made using this method. For example, there is no agreed upon concensus on choosing an initial value and determining an
optimum smoothing parameter and these decisions greatly affect the forecasting accuracy of SES. The proposed method will help cope with these shortcomings. It is compared to SES on popular metrics that are commonly used for evaluating performance of forecasting techniques and is shown to have better performance. The two models are applied to the 1001 time series of the M-competition data simultaneously and their prediction accuracies are compared under various settings.

Forecasting, Initial value, M-competition, Time series
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Birincil Dil en
Konular Matematik ve İstatistik
Dergi Bölümü İstatistik
Yazarlar

Yazar: Guckan Yapar (Sorumlu Yazar)

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { hujms440368, journal = {Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics}, issn = {1303-5010}, address = {Hacettepe Üniversitesi}, year = {2018}, volume = {47}, pages = {741 - 754}, doi = {}, title = {Modified simple exponential smoothing}, key = {cite}, author = {Yapar, Guckan} }
APA Yapar, G . (2018). Modified simple exponential smoothing. Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, 47 (3), 741-754. Retrieved from http://dergipark.gov.tr/hujms/issue/38121/440368
MLA Yapar, G . "Modified simple exponential smoothing". Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics 47 (2018): 741-754 <http://dergipark.gov.tr/hujms/issue/38121/440368>
Chicago Yapar, G . "Modified simple exponential smoothing". Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics 47 (2018): 741-754
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Modified simple exponential smoothing AU - Guckan Yapar Y1 - 2018 PY - 2018 N1 - DO - T2 - Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 741 EP - 754 VL - 47 IS - 3 SN - 1303-5010- M3 - UR - Y2 - 2016 ER -
EndNote %0 Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Modified simple exponential smoothing %A Guckan Yapar %T Modified simple exponential smoothing %D 2018 %J Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics %P 1303-5010- %V 47 %N 3 %R %U
ISNAD Yapar, Guckan . "Modified simple exponential smoothing". Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics 47 / 3 (Haziran 2018): 741-754.