Yıl 2018, Cilt 47, Sayı 5, Sayfalar 1394 - 1403 2018-10-16

Modified Holt's linear trend method

Guckan Yapar [1] , Sedat Capar [2] , Hanife Taylan Selamlar [3] , Idil Yavuz [4]

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Exponential smoothing models are simple, accurate and robust forecasting models and because of these they are widely applied in the literature. Holt's linear trend method is a valuable extension of exponential smoothing that helps deal with trending data. In this study we propose a modified version of Holt's linear trend method that eliminates the initialization issue faced when fitting the original model and simplies the optimization process. The proposed method is compared empirically with the most popular forecasting algorithms based on exponential smoothing and Box-Jenkins ARIMA with respect to its predictive performance on the M3-Competition data set and is shown to outperform its competitors. 
Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Initial value, M3-Competition, Smoothing parameter
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Birincil Dil en
Konular Matematik
Dergi Bölümü İstatistik
Yazarlar

Yazar: Guckan Yapar (Sorumlu Yazar)
Kurum: DOKUZ EYLUL UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF SCIENCE, DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS, STATISTICS PR.
Ülke: Turkey


Yazar: Sedat Capar
Kurum: DOKUZ EYLUL UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF SCIENCE, DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS, STATISTICS PR.

Yazar: Hanife Taylan Selamlar
Kurum: DOKUZ EYLUL UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF SCIENCE, DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS, STATISTICS PR.
Ülke: Turkey


Yazar: Idil Yavuz
Kurum: DOKUZ EYLUL UNIVERSITY, FACULTY OF SCIENCE, DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS, STATISTICS PR.

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { hujms471541, journal = {Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics}, issn = {2651-477X}, eissn = {2651-477X}, address = {Hacettepe Üniversitesi}, year = {2018}, volume = {47}, pages = {1394 - 1403}, doi = {}, title = {Modified Holt's linear trend method}, key = {cite}, author = {Capar, Sedat and Yavuz, Idil and Selamlar, Hanife Taylan and Yapar, Guckan} }
APA Yapar, G , Capar, S , Selamlar, H , Yavuz, I . (2018). Modified Holt's linear trend method. Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, 47 (5), 1394-1403. Retrieved from http://dergipark.gov.tr/hujms/issue/39860/471541
MLA Yapar, G , Capar, S , Selamlar, H , Yavuz, I . "Modified Holt's linear trend method". Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics 47 (2018): 1394-1403 <http://dergipark.gov.tr/hujms/issue/39860/471541>
Chicago Yapar, G , Capar, S , Selamlar, H , Yavuz, I . "Modified Holt's linear trend method". Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics 47 (2018): 1394-1403
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Modified Holt's linear trend method AU - Guckan Yapar , Sedat Capar , Hanife Taylan Selamlar , Idil Yavuz Y1 - 2018 PY - 2018 N1 - DO - T2 - Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 1394 EP - 1403 VL - 47 IS - 5 SN - 2651-477X-2651-477X M3 - UR - Y2 - 2017 ER -
EndNote %0 Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Modified Holt's linear trend method %A Guckan Yapar , Sedat Capar , Hanife Taylan Selamlar , Idil Yavuz %T Modified Holt's linear trend method %D 2018 %J Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics %P 2651-477X-2651-477X %V 47 %N 5 %R %U
ISNAD Yapar, Guckan , Capar, Sedat , Selamlar, Hanife Taylan , Yavuz, Idil . "Modified Holt's linear trend method". Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics 47 / 5 (Ekim 2018): 1394-1403.