Yıl 2018, Cilt 5, Sayı 3, Sayfalar 474 - 490 2018-06-22

Predicting Achievement with Artificial Neural Networks: The Case of Anadolu University Open Education System

Hilal Seda Yıldız Aybek [1] , Muhammet Recep Okur [2]

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This study aims to predict the final exam scores and pass/fail rates of the students taking the Basic Information Technologies – 1 (BIL101U) course in 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 academic years in the Open Education System of Anadolu University, through Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). In this research, data about the demographics, educational background, BIL101U course mid-term, final and success scores of 626,478 students was collected and purged. Data of 195,584 students, obtained after this process was analysed through Multilayer Perception (MLP) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) models. Sixteen different networks attained through the combination of ANN parameters were used to predict the final exam scores and pass/fail rates of the students. As a result of the analyses, it was found out that networks established through MLPs make more exact predictions. In the prediction of the final exam scores, it was determined that there is a low level of correlation between the actual scores and predicted scores. In the analyses for the prediction of pass/fail rates of the students, networks established through MLPs ensured more exact prediction results. Moreover, it was determined that the variables as mid-term exam scores, university entrance scores and secondary school graduation year were of highest importance in explaining the final exam scores and pass/fail rates of the students. It was found out that in the higher institutions serving for Open and Distance Learning, pass/fail state of the students can be predicted through ANN under favour of variables of students which have been found as most the important predictors.
Prediction of Student Achievement, Achievement in the Higher Education, Open and Distance Learning, Artificial Neural Networks
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Birincil Dil en
Konular Eğitim Bilimleri
Yayımlanma Tarihi September
Dergi Bölümü Makaleler

Orcid: orcid.org/0000-0001-9128-734X
Yazar: Hilal Seda Yıldız Aybek (Sorumlu Yazar)
Kurum: Yasar University
Ülke: Turkey

Orcid: orcid.org/0000-0003-2639-4987
Yazar: Muhammet Recep Okur
Kurum: Anadolu University

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { ijate435507, journal = {International Journal of Assessment Tools in Education}, issn = {}, eissn = {2148-7456}, address = {İzzet KARA}, year = {2018}, volume = {5}, pages = {474 - 490}, doi = {10.21449/ijate.435507}, title = {Predicting Achievement with Artificial Neural Networks: The Case of Anadolu University Open Education System}, key = {cite}, author = {Okur, Muhammet Recep and Yıldız Aybek, Hilal Seda} }
APA Yıldız Aybek, H , Okur, M . (2018). Predicting Achievement with Artificial Neural Networks: The Case of Anadolu University Open Education System. International Journal of Assessment Tools in Education, 5 (3), 474-490. DOI: 10.21449/ijate.435507
MLA Yıldız Aybek, H , Okur, M . "Predicting Achievement with Artificial Neural Networks: The Case of Anadolu University Open Education System". International Journal of Assessment Tools in Education 5 (2018): 474-490 <http://dergipark.gov.tr/ijate/issue/37036/435507>
Chicago Yıldız Aybek, H , Okur, M . "Predicting Achievement with Artificial Neural Networks: The Case of Anadolu University Open Education System". International Journal of Assessment Tools in Education 5 (2018): 474-490
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Predicting Achievement with Artificial Neural Networks: The Case of Anadolu University Open Education System AU - Hilal Seda Yıldız Aybek , Muhammet Recep Okur Y1 - 2018 PY - 2018 N1 - doi: 10.21449/ijate.435507 DO - 10.21449/ijate.435507 T2 - International Journal of Assessment Tools in Education JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 474 EP - 490 VL - 5 IS - 3 SN - -2148-7456 M3 - doi: 10.21449/ijate.435507 UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.21449/ijate.435507 Y2 - 2018 ER -
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