Yıl 2017, Cilt 25, Sayı 34, Sayfalar 173 - 186 2017-10-31

Türkiye’de Üretici Fiyat Endeksi ve Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı
Examination of the Relationship between Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Harun TERZİ [1] , Asiye TÜTÜNCÜ [2]

245 873

Üretici fiyat endeksi ile tüketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyon oranın belirlenmesi ve çeşitli ekonomik göstergelerin hesaplanmasında birbirleri yerine kullanılmaktadır. Ancak değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olması halinde bu işlemler etkili sonuçlar vermektedir. Aksi halde ele alınan fiyat endeksine göre sonuçlar değişmektedir. Bu nedenle, bu çalışmada, üretici ve tüketici fiyat endeksi arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönemli ilişkiler incelenmiştir. Türkiye’de 2010:m5-2016:m4 dönemi ARDL sınır testi ile gerçekleştirilen analiz sonucunda, üretici fiyat endeksi (ÜFE) ve tüketici fiyat endeksi (TÜFE) arasında hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde çift yönlü ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Producer price index and consumer price index are used instead of each other for calculating inflation rate and various economic indicators. However, if there is a long-run relationship between the variables, this process can provide effective results. Otherwise, the results vary according to the price index. Therefore, in this study, long and short-run relationships between producer and consumer price index was investigated. As a result of analysis performed with ARDL, bounds test for the period of 2010:m5-2016:m4 in Turkey, bi-directional and statistically significant causality has been found between Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) both in the short and long run.

  • Abdioğlu, Z. & Ö. Korkmaz (2012), “Tüketici ve Üretici Fiyat Endekslerinde Fiyat Geçişkenliği: Alt Sektörler”, Çukurova Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 16(2): 65-81.
  • Atuk, O. & F. Öğünç & M.U. Özmen & Ç. Sarıkaya (2013), “Türkiye’de Üretici ve Tüketici Fiyatları Arasındaki İlişki Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme”, TCMB Ekonomi Notları, 2013(21): 1-12.
  • Akçay, S. (2011), “The Causal Relationship between Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index: Empirical Evidence from Selected European Countries”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(6): 227-232.
  • Banerji, A. (1999), ‘‘The Lead Profile and Other Non-Parametric Tools to Evaluate Survey Series as Leading Indicators”, in Use of Survey Data for Industry, Research and Economic Policy. Selected papers presented at the 24th CIRET Conference, Wellington, New Zealand, K. H. Oppenlander, G. Poser and B. Schips, editors. Aldershot, U.K.: Ashgate.
  • Clark, T. E. (1995), “Do Producer Prices Lead Consumer Prices?”, Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 80(3): 25-39.
  • Caporale, G.M. & M. Katsimi & N. Pittis (2002), “Causality Links between Consumer and Producer Prices: Some Empirical Evidence”, Southern Economic Journal, 68(3): 703-711.
  • Cushing, M.J. & M.G. McGarvey (1990), “Feedback between Wholesale and Consumer Price Inflation: A Reexamination of the Evidence”, Southern Economic Journal, 56(4): 1059-1072.
  • Dickey, D.A. & W.A. Fuller (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49(4): 1057-1072.
  • Dorestani, A. & L.H. Arjomand (2006), “An Empirical Study of the Relationship between Consumer and Producer Price Index: A Unit Root Test and Test of Cointegration”, The Coastal Business Journal, 5(1): 33-38.
  • Frimpong, J.M. & E.F. Oteng-Abayie (2006), “Bounds Testing Approach: An Examination of Foreign Direct Investment, Trade, and Growth Relationships”, https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/352/1/MPRA_paper_352.pdf, 20.06.2016.
  • Ghazali, M.F. & O.A. Yee & M.Z. Muhammad (2009), “Do Producer Prices Cause Consumer Prices? Some Empirical Evidence”, International Journal of Business and Management, 3(11): 78-82.
  • Guglielmo, M.C. & M. Katsim & N. Pittis (2002), “Causality Links between Consumer and Producer Prices: Some Empirical Evidence”, Southern Economic Journal, 68(3): 703-711.
  • Guthrie, R.S. (1981), “The Relationship between Wholesale and Consumer Prices”, Southern Economic Journal, 47(4): 1046-1055.
  • Johansen, S. & K. Juselius (1990), ‘‘Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration—with Applications to the Demand for Money’’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169-210.
  • Jones, J.D. (1986), “Consumer Prices, Wholesale Prices, and Causality” Empirical Economics, 11(1): 41-55.
  • Katsouli, A. & A. Vogiatzis & A. Manitsaris (2002), “Linking Consumer Prices to Wholesale Prices: Error Correction Models for the Case of Greece”, Agricultural Economics Review, 3(1): 12-22.
  • Martinez, W.O.R. & E.G. Caicedo & E.J.C. Tique (2013), “Exploring the Relationship between the CPI and the PPI: The Colombian Case”, International Journal of Business and Management, 8(17): 142-152.
  • Narayan, P.K. (2005), “The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests”, Applied Economics, 37(17): 1979-1990.
  • Pesaran, M.H. & Y. Shin & R.J. Smith (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3): 289-326
  • Phillips, P.C.B. & P. Perron (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, 75(2): 335-346.
  • Samanta, G.P. & S. Mitra (1998), “Recent Divergence between Wholesale and Consumer Prices in India - a Statistical Exploration”, Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, 19: 329-344.
  • Saraç, T.H. & K. Karagöz (2010), “Türkiye’de Tüketici ve Üretici Fiyatları Arasındaki İlişki: Yapısal Kırılma ve Sınır Testi”, Maliye Dergisi, 159: 220-232.
  • Shahbaz, M. & R.U. Awan & N.M. Nasir (2009), “Producer & Consumer Prices Nexus: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach”, International Journal of Marketing Studies, 1(2): 78-86.
  • Shahbaz, M. & A.K. Tiwari & I.M. Tahir (2012), “Does CPI Granger-Cause WPI? New Extensions from Frequency Domain Approach in Pakistan”, Economic Modelling, 29: 1592-1597.
  • Sidaoui, J. & C. Capistrán & D. Chiquiar & M. Ramos-Francia (2009), “A Note on the Predictive Content of PPI over CPI Inflation: The Case of Mexico”, Banco de Mexico Working Papers, 14:1-18.
  • Şahinöz, S. & A. Ataberk Demirhan & E. Erdoğan Coşar (2007), “Üretici Fiyatlarından Tüketici Fiyatlarına Geçişkenliğin Farklı Yaklaşımlarla İncelenmesi: Türkiye Örneği”, TİSK Akademi, 2(4): 224-246.
  • Tarı, R. & T. Abasız & F. Pehlivanoğlu (2012), “TEFE (ÜFE)-TÜFE Fiyat Endeksleri Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Frekans Alanı Yaklaşımı”, Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi, 12(24): 1-15.
  • Tiwari A.K. (2012a), “Causality between Wholesale Price and Consumer Price Indices in India”, Indian Growth and Development Review, 5(2): 151-172.
  • Tiwari A.K. (2012b), “An Empirical Investigation of Causality between Producers' Price and Consumers' Price Indices in Australia in Frequency Domain”, Economic Modelling, 29(5): 1571-1578.
  • Tiwari, A.K. & M. Shahbaz (2013), “Modelling the Relationship between Whole Sale Price and Consumer Price Indices: Cointegration and Causality Analysis for India”, Global Business Review, 14(3): 397-411.
  • Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (2008), “Fiyat Endeksleri ve Enflasyon-Sorularla Resmi İstatistikler Dizisi-3”, https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/yayin/views/visitorPages/index.zul, 09.06.2016.
  • Ülke, V. & U. Ergün (2014), “The Relationship between Consumer Price and Producer Price Indices in Turkey”, International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, 3(1): 205-22.
  • Yıldırım, Z. (2015), “Enflasyon Rejimleri ve Üretici Enflasyonundan Tüketici Enflasyonuna Geçişkenlik”, Central Bank Review, 15(3): 89-114.
  • Zortuk, M. (2008), “Türkiye’de Tüketici ve Toptan Eşya Fiyat Endeksleri Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: 1986-2004”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 20: 181-190.
Konular Sosyal
Yayımlanma Tarihi October
Dergi Bölümü Makaleler
Yazarlar

Yazar: Harun TERZİ
Kurum: Karadeniz Technical University
Ülke: Turkey


Yazar: Asiye TÜTÜNCÜ
Kurum: Karadeniz Technical University

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { sosyoekonomi289926, journal = {Sosyoekonomi}, issn = {1305-5577}, address = {Sosyoekonomi Derneği}, year = {2017}, volume = {25}, pages = {173 - 186}, doi = {10.17233/sosyoekonomi.289926}, title = {Examination of the Relationship between Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach}, key = {cite}, author = {TERZİ, Harun and TÜTÜNCÜ, Asiye} }
APA TERZİ, H , TÜTÜNCÜ, A . (2017). Examination of the Relationship between Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach. Sosyoekonomi, 25 (34), 173-186. DOI: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.289926
MLA TERZİ, H , TÜTÜNCÜ, A . "Examination of the Relationship between Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach". Sosyoekonomi 25 (2017): 173-186 <http://dergipark.gov.tr/sosyoekonomi/issue/31046/289926>
Chicago TERZİ, H , TÜTÜNCÜ, A . "Examination of the Relationship between Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach". Sosyoekonomi 25 (2017): 173-186
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Examination of the Relationship between Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach AU - Harun TERZİ , Asiye TÜTÜNCÜ Y1 - 2017 PY - 2017 N1 - doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.289926 DO - 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.289926 T2 - Sosyoekonomi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 173 EP - 186 VL - 25 IS - 34 SN - 1305-5577- M3 - doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.289926 UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.289926 Y2 - 2017 ER -
EndNote %0 Sosyoekonomi Examination of the Relationship between Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach %A Harun TERZİ , Asiye TÜTÜNCÜ %T Examination of the Relationship between Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach %D 2017 %J Sosyoekonomi %P 1305-5577- %V 25 %N 34 %R doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.289926 %U 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.289926
ISNAD TERZİ, Harun , TÜTÜNCÜ, Asiye . "Türkiye’de Üretici Fiyat Endeksi ve Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı". Sosyoekonomi 25 / 34 (Ekim 2017): 173-186. http://dx.doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.289926